Obesity market model

Granular historical data (including NBRx, TRx, patient persistence, gross-to-net and more) on GLP-1 drugs in an easy-to-use Excel model.

Quickly forecast prescriptions, revenue, and market share, with dynamic scenario planning based on both supply and demand.

Stay on top of the biggest market in biopharma

Focus on your edge, instead of data extraction or debugging formulas.

The model includes data you can't find in SEC filings like monthly patient persistence, estimated gross-to-net discounts and prescription volume. And the data is fully integrated into the model, so you don't have to build cohort churn waterfalls or TRx calculations.

📊 Clean data, market-moving metrics

Detailed historical data for key GLP-1 drugs form a strong foundation for confident forecasts:

TRx and NBRx data: Quarterly historical TRx and NBRx data reveals demand trends, supply shortages and market share.
Gross-to-net discounts: Historical list price and estimated gross-to-net discounts show how pricing unfolds in a quickly evolving market
Patient persistence and churn: Understand how improved tolerability and other factors drive revenue through better patient retention.
And more: Quarterly net revenue by geography, number of patients with diabetes and obesity, off-label usage and more

Data is collected using automated and manual methods (including AI). All data collected with automated techniques is manually verified and sourced to ensure accuracy.

📈 Forecast revenue and market share

The model dynamically links historical data to quarterly projections through 2034, forecasting prescriptions, revenue, and market share for key GLP-1 drugs.

Model supply and demand: Project revenue based on manufacturing capacity constraints, not just patient demand.
Granular model drivers: Adjust for variables such as manufacturing capacity growth, patient persistence, and gross-to-net discounts.
Scenario planning: Instantly toggle between “upside,” “base case,” and “downside” scenarios to test assumptions and understand revenue impact.
Easy to use: Model inputs are clearly marked for ease of use, so you can adjust parameters like peak obesity medication usage, diabetes patient prescription rates, and insurance coverage without breaking the model.

We provide placeholder values for key assumptions, such as manufacturing capacity, insurance coverage, and gross-to-net discounts. The model is fully customizable, allowing you to input your own projections and see how the model outputs change.

The model currently forecasts market share and revenue for Ozempic, Mounjaro, Rybelsus, Wegovy and Zepbound.

📤 Fast updates, continuous improvements

The model is updated every quarter, as well as when notable events occur (such as the approval of a new drug).

We also continually improve the model. While the specific improvements are subject to change, they will include things like:

Projected market share and revenue for development-stage drugs
More granular market share modeling (NBRx source of business, within-class Rx switching, more specific subpopulations of obese and diabetic patients, etc.)
Program valuation and rNPV
Monte Carlo simulations and statistical forecasting
Longer-term forecasts including loss of exclusivity and additional indications like sleep apnea, NASH/MASH, etc.
Primary market research to inform assumptions around forecasts

Updates and improvements are only available to Enhanced Access customers.

Access the model

Standard Access

One-time fee: $799

One-time purchase

Fully functional, ready-to-use Excel model

Up-to-date quarterly historical data (through Q2 2024)

Basic model: $799

Enhanced Access (for one year)

One-time fee: $5,750

One-time purchase

Fully functional, ready-to-use Excel model

Up-to-date quarterly historical data (through Q2 2024)

Model updated every quarter

Access to all future improvements over the next year

Priority support for troubleshooting, model adjustments or custom analysis

Enhanced model: $5,750

Forecast the obesity market. See trends faster.